Know Your Environment: Static Forecasting and Rolling Forecasting (Part One)

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Know Your Environment: Static Forecasting and Rolling Forecasting (Part One)

By Ezra Boggs | Date Published: January 28, 2026 - Last Updated January 28, 2026 | Comments

Static Forecasting 

A static forecast is a fixed prediction for a future period that is made once and does not change, regardless of new information or changing circumstances.

 

It is typically created at the beginning of a planning period, such as a month or a quarter, and is used to guide decision-making for the entire period.

 

Static forecasts are useful when 

 

  • Historical patterns are consistent

  • There are few unknown variables or unexpected events

  • They work best in environments with low variability

 

Thus, if a static forecast predicts 10,000 calls for the next quarter, that number is set and will not be revisited or adjusted during that period, even if actual call volumes start to differ significantly.

 

Advantages:

  • Simple to create and implement

  • Easier to communicate since it remains constant

  • Requires less frequent updates, thus reducing administrative effort

 

Disadvantages:

  • Lacks flexibility to adjust to real-time changes in demand

  • If conditions change (e.g., new product launch, unexpected events), the forecast can quickly become inaccurate

  • Not suitable for highly capricious environments, where unexpected events are common

Rolling Forecasting

A rolling forecast is dynamic and continuously updated as new data becomes available.

 

While starting from historical data, instead of forecasting up to a fixed point (e.g., one quarter), a rolling forecast extends by a consistent period or in some instances by interval (e.g., always forecasting 4 weeks ahead). As each period ends, the forecast adds another period, maintaining the same forecast horizon.

 

Rolling forecasts allow an organization to adjust projections based on 

 

  • The most current trends 

  • Real-time information and variances to prior volume patterns 

  • Making them more responsive to changes in the environment

 

Thus, if a rolling forecast predicts 10,000 calls for the next week, this forecast is revisited regularly (e.g., daily, hourly, as often as needed to determine applicable adjustments) and revised if actual data shows a shift in call volume patterns. Therefore, when the historic analysis is blindsided by an extra helping of an additional 50,000 calls, the forecast projection and staffing requirements reflect this surge in volume over the forthcoming days.

 

Advantages:

  • Greater accuracy due to constant updates with the latest data

  • Flexible and adaptive to changing circumstances, which helps maintainaccurate staffing levels

  • Encourages proactive adjustments, reducing the risk of over or understaffing

  • Ideal for environments with high variability and uncertainty, such as call centers dealing with fluctuating demand

 

Disadvantages:

  • Requires more frequent updates and data analysis, which can be resource intensive

  • Can be more complex to implement and manage

  • Continuous updates can sometimes create decision fatigue or uncertainty if not managed well

External Volume Factors that Require Rolling Forecast Practices

As an example, the Texas Wintergeddon in 2021,[DR-4586-TX] which produced

 

  • Volume from declared counties within a Declaration

  • Calls from counties NOT declared in a Declaration

  • Increased call volume from new counties added to a Declaration

  • Recurring Auto Dialers that prompt survivors 

  • Inquiries prompted by misinformation on Social Media

  • Call Spikes triggered by Press Conferences and Media Updates

  • Unknown factors outside off ‘All of the Above’ that cannot explain the 1,600 calls we’ve received for a state without an active Declaration

External Vendor Volume Factors and Latent Interval Data Impact

At the very first moment External Vendors are activated to assist with incoming volume, all Intraday [within the day] functions are suspended.

 

This can be due to Vendor Reporting Platforms operating on reporting engines that don't provide needed data with the same currency as your Enterprise operates within. Juxtapose this issue with being reliant on receiving Emails for External Vendor data (which can sometimes get delayed via Outlook or other issues) and it can exacerbate the data latency issue. 

 

Thus, External Vendor data latency can make all revisions delayed for several hours.

Disclaimer: Sharing information on ICMI’s website is not intended to be an endorsement of ICMI. The views expressed in the article do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Homeland Security or the United States Government.

Ezra is a 2026 ICMI Featured Contributor and Team Lead - Forecasting for FEMA. 
Topics: Workforce Management

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